If a risk can be defined,
it can be hedged.
We do both.
The Vision
The financial system built hedging infrastructure for standardized risks: currencies, interest rates, commodities.
But many of the risks that actually destroy businesses sit outside that system entirely. Tariff shocks reprice supply chains overnight. Political transitions freeze capital deployment across regions. Regulatory reversals invalidate operating models built over years.
These are not exotic scenarios. They are recurring, measurable and, until now, unhedgeable.
Prediction markets have proven the premise: geopolitical and regulatory uncertainty can be priced. What's missing is the layer that connects those prices to the enterprises exposed to the outcomes.
Castle is that layer.
The Product
Our AI agents continuously monitor your exposure profile and deliver real-time probability estimates on the events that matter to your business.
We structure event-driven hedges against these specific risks and broker them through institutional market makers with proper collateral management and settlement infrastructure. Where no liquid contract exists, we create one: any discrete, macro-level risk can be defined as an event contract and traded on our platform.
The Team
Castle was founded by four Stanford mathematicians and computer scientists. We have experience at the top quantitative trading desks and production engineering teams.
We have priced risk, traded it, and engineered systems around it.
We raised a $6M+ seed round led by Ribbit Capital. Our investors include founders at Coinbase, Ramp, Mercury, Parafin, and Index Ventures, alongside builders from OpenAI, Cognition, and Mercor.
Contact
Talk to us directly.
If you want to discuss a specific exposure, send a note and we will follow up directly.